Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 32.799267 36.414213 40.462268 45.372196 51.222628 58.043539 6.670785e+01
2025-07-13 27.273653 31.926116 37.582740 45.117682 55.137273 68.390593 8.797610e+01
2025-07-20 23.709135 28.879363 35.576962 45.204713 59.281583 80.223438 1.163525e+02
2025-07-27 21.341765 26.844555 34.355893 45.886554 64.266546 94.930144 1.574048e+02
2025-08-03 19.256836 24.818934 32.723739 45.512696 67.427940 107.928128 2.051369e+02
2025-08-10 17.645579 23.207363 31.385262 45.233839 70.570218 122.220926 2.697081e+02
2025-08-17 16.439619 22.015059 30.468719 45.402950 74.502304 140.065849 3.681526e+02
2025-08-24 15.317742 20.812464 29.354269 44.984745 77.137679 156.482016 4.942832e+02
2025-08-31 14.382591 19.794710 28.398019 44.654941 79.847004 174.889937 6.826673e+02
2025-09-07 13.559212 18.871373 27.482759 44.228638 82.219350 194.175776 9.642876e+02
2025-09-14 12.888894 18.131159 26.790975 44.110996 85.302727 218.454129 1.474835e+03
2025-09-21 12.236732 17.366334 25.973944 43.603063 87.279358 240.881822 2.296601e+03
2025-09-28 12.016093 17.309352 26.432073 45.902681 97.814667 312.592527 7.910668e+03
2025-10-05 11.471817 16.667380 25.761339 45.648966 101.104782 356.547424 2.896821e+04
2025-10-12 11.020192 16.151162 25.275366 45.740084 105.600709 417.218285 7.321593e+06
2025-10-19 10.677383 15.797691 25.062295 46.435282 112.478047 512.671345 NaN
2025-10-26 10.247656 15.261776 24.444693 46.055391 115.549758 590.085758 NaN
2025-11-02 9.864019 14.783411 23.898738 45.771884 118.971406 687.214853 NaN
2025-11-09 9.555489 14.420441 23.551745 45.944142 124.377284 838.435176 NaN
2025-11-16 9.214482 13.978313 23.007198 45.518596 127.230041 979.206856 NaN
2025-11-23 8.906480 13.579643 22.521283 45.183004 130.448474 1161.599195 NaN
2025-11-30 8.611515 13.189505 22.024138 44.749223 133.140433 1374.226335 NaN
2025-12-07 8.362459 12.871931 21.656655 44.629526 137.420581 1707.666006 NaN